Probability

Have you ever flipped a coin and shouted, “Heads!” before it landed? Or have you looked at dark clouds and wondered if you should bring an umbrella? That feeling of guessing, of wondering what might happen next—that’s me! I’m in every roll of the dice in a board game and every spin of a wheel. Before people knew my name, they just called it luck or chance. But I’m more than that. I am the question mark at the end of “what if?” Hello there, my name is Probability, and I help you think about all the amazing things that could happen.

For a long, long time, people thought I was a total mystery. They saw me in games but couldn’t figure out my secrets. Then, on a summer day way back in 1654, two very clever friends in France started writing letters to each other. Their names were Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. They were trying to solve a puzzle about a dice game. They wanted to know how to share a prize fairly if a game was stopped before it was finished. Instead of just guessing, they used numbers to explore what was most likely to happen. They drew charts and wrote down all the possibilities. They realized that even in a game of chance, there were patterns! They discovered that you could measure the chance of something happening. It was like they had found a secret map to the future, not to know exactly what would happen, but to understand what was likely to happen. That was the moment people started to truly understand me.

Today, I’m everywhere! When a weather forecaster says there’s an 80% chance of sunshine, that’s me helping you plan a picnic. When a doctor tells you a medicine is very likely to make you feel better, that’s me helping them make a smart choice. I’m even in your video games, deciding if you’ll find a common rock or a super rare treasure! I don’t give you all the answers, but I help you make great guesses. I turn the big, mysterious world of “what if” into something you can explore and understand. So next time you wonder what might happen, remember me, Probability. I’m here to help you be a thoughtful explorer, ready for any adventure that comes your way!